capital iq had an expectational of earnings growth for the fourth quarter of 16.5%. today, those expectations are down to just over 3%. 3% growth. largely because of the limbo washington left business in for the entire fourth quarter, as we all had guess work has to what our tax rates would look like. add to that the losses surrounding the tragedy of hurricane sandy and you saw all of the expectations of robust growth and business tamped down quite a bit. the revenue story, unfortunately, is worrisome. that's expected to be flat. the debt ceiling debate, of course, does not to help clarity which is why i would not expect too much from the fourth quarter. we will truly know where our economy or earnings could be. we won't know until washington's dysfunction on steroids comes to an end. before we go, take a look at the day on wall street. the dow down by 51 points. that will do it for us. thank you so much for being with me. see you tomorrow. d "fast money" begins right now.

stay with cnbc. have a great night. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. mobile wars. google, apple and sam sung are trying to dominate your smartphone. but are they the best way? retail detail. how bricks and mortar stores are still alive and well and surprise, surprise. doug cass joins us with his annual list of predictions. first, our top story, and that is stocks near a five-year high, so, we ask, even with today's slight pull back, are you a buyer or seller? >> 1465 is still that crypt night level. timmy was talking about it last week. it's still that level. more recent high was 1474. then we trailed down from there. until we cross over this 1465 level, we're still looking at profit taking. people still worried about the

debt ceiling people still concerned with earnings. margins. a whole pot purry -- you know i love that word. so, there's plenty of reasons -- >> karen, you can sit on this side. the first time ever in the show's history. come over here, sit with us. >> i can smell your poe purry over here, my man. >> like roses. >> who knew? >> rather be a seller at this point. see the market show some confirmation. i'd rather be above 1474. i'd rather wait until there, because there, you get a good shot at 15, 1525. if you buy it there, you could be looking at much lower markets, but i will tell you, just to be long winded right out of the blocks, i apologize, you have seen a never-ending buy side coming into this. >> a never ending -- karen, welcome back. haven't seen you in awhile. surprised by all of this action in the markets? 4.3% surge in the first couple of days of last week?

>> i was a little bit surprised. nice to see nor money go to work. that is good. valuations to me tonight look too stretched though it is hard to jump in after that kind of run where we had the s&p up, i don't know, 60 handles, whatever it is. but i'm long what i'm still long. i haven't sold much of anything at all. just taking tiny stiticks. very interested to see how the banks come out. see that this week starting with the ones i like next week. i haven't -- i'm not a wholesale seller here. i think the only thing really worried me is fireworks on the debt ceiling in the next month. >> right. before i get the opinion of this side of the desk, i want to walk through. there are people at home who are saying, stocks are near five-year highs but my portfolio does not refrequent and that's because, well, look at the performances. financials are still down 52% from their peak. utilities, industrials lagging. if you held onto u.s. steel,

alcoa, citigroup of bank of america hoping for a bounce back, you are still out of luck. they're down more than 75% since the s&p 500 peak. do you stick with what's work, apple, tjmaxx, priceline, or do you double down on the weakli weaklings? that's what we saw coming out of the woodwork with analyst calls saying, you want to buy things like the banks that have been beaten down, you don't want to buy the strongest banks out there. you want to buy the ones that are leveraged to the upside. more leavers to pull. >> well, i think you have levers in the banking sector, in terms of normalcy with an earnings profile but you don't have normalcy with the share caps. they're not going to get back there. but they are getting back to normalized earnings. you are not buying beaten down stocks. banks that were the best performing stocks last year bar known. so, when i look at consumer staples and discretionary, those guys that have global

franchises, the proctor & gamble, unilever, even walmart. if you look at what's going on with demographics globally, this is when you get into what i do all day long. these companies are exposed to the consumer. even at countries that are growing at 3% or less, which is kind of a new era of find of trend growth, you're seeing these companies taking off. i would stay in those trades but it comes down to valuation and you can't chase that here. >> just to key off that point, those charts that we're showing are interesting and some of them are very sad if you held those stocks. but let's look at where valuation is right now. let's look at the market. and the market looks reasonably priced to slightly underpriced and so there is some movement to the upside for these stocks. but you do have against that, melissa, a headwind of earnings right now. i think we're going into the worst earning season since 2008. the year of year comps are going to be very difficult this year. and so, that's the head wind.

the valuation is okay. but if you get a couple of hiccups or negative surprises, stocks that you're in that you don't want to hold long-term you should be a seller. >> why can't you just trade it, though? so, i think what it's taught us is, you can't buy and hold. you have to be trading this market. citigroup, december 3rd trading at below $35. now it's up over 20%, as well. so, a lot of these names on this list that haven't gotten back to that level, you could have made a ton of money. >> right. if you surrounded the trade, you'd be okay. >> pause before you do that. >> speaking of negative -- >> you can put potpurri around the trade. >> big move in yum brands. >> big move to the down side. the economy saying its china division sales will be down 6% for q 4. back on december 21st, the company projected a 4% decrease due to the controversy over chicken served at kfc with high antibiotic levels.

yum brands now seeps 2012 earnings of 324 a share. they are maintaining that level. but they are saying that the adverse publicity has led to the weaker sales. yum's qfc china division accounts for 50% of overall earnings. >> bertha, thank you for that. it's not just china weakness, but because of this specific issue. i don't know how much you discount this for other china exposed companies. >> i think yum's slowdown in china is both a pan kind of consumer and leisure dining story, a yum specific story. yum gotten everybody believing they were going to grow 15% in china forever and this is a problem. when we got the numbers, thiss something wedy gu di digested a and a half ago. we started to hear some of the rumblings about the attacks from the government. this is a fantastic company. and if they punish it too much

here, the end of the day, you're going to be in a very good place to pick up a stock, i think valuation is sub 17 times earnings, i want to earn yum. people are making a big deal -- >> it was a study, that youed all didded, right, chicken samples -- you think it's an attack, though, by the chinese government? >> they can under attack in terms of the sentiment. they are often been seen as the safe place, believe it or not, in this country, fast food has a stigma attached to it. at china, it's like you're eating at a health food restaurant. that's why yum has been -- >> i find that kind of -- wasn't enough? didn't meet the standard. >> we are entirely joking here. but -- >> fast food joke. >> let's hope so. >> they tested checken that had come from farmers from various provinces and found high levels of antibiotics. bull the other stock in the cross hairs was mcdonald's. that's pulling back just a touch. big move today, though, on this

announcement they are going to sell wings. too bad -- i don't know why that's so funny. >> you called me today because you were so fired up. >> we're having lunch there tomorrow. but -- i want to go to tim's point, because the government is very interesting in china. they let a lot of things slide but they're not letting this slide. so, that's a punishment in tim's point of view. it's just interesting. don't put a lot of eggs in china because there's a great uncertainty about the government there. >> right. let's stick with earnings here and talk about alcoa. it kicks off the heearnings sean tomorrow afternoon. other notables include monsanto and wells fargo. this is the next target. will the earnings season start to derail this rally? >> alcoa's been luck of the draw here, so, a couple of times you'll see it come out of earnings and it will spike higher a couple of times, it will just descend off the table. so, you have to just bet on where you think global gdp is. it's not a barometer anymore, people are still playing global

growth based on this, or this based on global growth. so, i'm a little wary of global growth. i think you're looking for lower numbers going forward. i wouldn't be a buyer of the name, but i don't trade alcoa well, so, that's full disclosure. >> you listen to alcoa because you want to see who is buying aluminum but you don't trade alcoa as an earnings approxim s. >> i think klaus is a great ceo, but there's overcapacity in aluminum. this is a story about cost cutting and refinding a balance sheet which was totally impaired, one of those hazard stocks we pointed to. >> but in terms of, i presume the auto sector, aerospace, users of aluminum. >> listen, at the end of the day, it's a great long-term story and there will be an economic pickup around the world, but what you're doing here right now is, we're trading

markets in a lot of volatility for these names but i like that name long-term. >> really quick, what you said about the auto sector, these are moving towards more aluminum -- the frame is steel but everything else is aluminum. people are choosing mpgs over the stability of the cars in a lot of these -- >> frightening. >> it is. >> let's move to amazon, soaring to an all-time high, after morgan stanley upgraded the stock. is the trend your friend? should you be dumping the stock? we've got a street fight here. steve is the bull, tim is the bear. you've each got -- we've amended this. you now each have 30 seconds to make your case. >> powder over that black eye from last week. >> i'm staring at your hair. it looks great. >> can't touch it, buddy. >> start the clock now with the bull case. >> it's all about fulfillment centers. have to look at, what's the cost basis? in 2011, 8.5% of revenues. in 2012, 10.6%.

if you believe the fulfillment senter expenses are going to start to recede, you want to be a buyer. i would be a buyer here but i would keep it on a short leash, use a 260 stop. >> why are you bearish? >> it's always about valuation. this is a great company. but when you look at the last five quarters, they are falling in terms of their revenues in terms of their eps and in terms of their ability to manage their margins. the cost on the fulfillment side are something that are catching up to them. if you look at the note, obviously, a guy like me, an emerging markets guy should love this, but at the end of the day, they are somebody what is going to have significant competition. morgan stanley is saying 16%, going to go from 14 to about 16.5% of the global e-commerce market. a trillion dollars by 2016. i buy that. if you look at places like brazil, russia, places where on the ground --

>> the clock is up now. >> how long do they give him? >> that's it. >> these guys are going to fall to the competition in a way i don't think people think they can. watch that. >> your five seconds over. anthony? where do you stand on this? tim or steve? >> i love amazon, so, i'm sorry, i just have to, you know -- >> but why do you love it? >> okay, there's four reasons, okay? one, jeff running the company. number two, they've created the best virtual real estate in the world. all these other retailers effectively showrooms for them. number three, a great transition right now, from a lot of their products that are dying in the space, like books, to the digital space. >> right. >> and they're going to go into the bagadgets and holding their own in the cloud and i think long-term these guys are going to crush it. >> i'm glad you mentioned amazon web services. that's a huge driver of growth. smart part right now -- >> there are analysts they say, they can't compete against ibm, oracle, but they have been.

and this guy is a visionary. he's steve jobs of the next ten years. >> 580 times earnings. >> all right. >> i understand that. >> good fight here. and it continues here. >> mow monmentum play. >> coming up next, at&t mobility ceo wakes in on the battle of iphone versus android and our traders will give you the best way to play what lies ahead for mobile. and doug kass' top three surprises for 2013. much more "fast" straight ahead.

aig? we said we were going to turn it around, and we did. woman: we're helping joplin, missouri, come back from a devastating tornado. man: and now we're helping the east coast recover from hurricane sandy. we're a leading global insurance company, based right here in america. we've repaid every dollar america lent us. everything, plus a profit of more than $22 billion. for the american people. thank you, america. helping people recover and rebuild -- that's what we do. now let's bring on tomorrow.

apple may be the most valuable tech econocompany worl it is second place in the smartphone world. samsung dominating. so, who has the momentum in mobile? joinings now is the ceo of at&t mobility. he's now to in las vegas for the annual consumer electronics show. ralph, great to speak with you. >> great to be out here at ces once again. >> i'm sure it's a very exciting time. i want to ask you about the smartphone wars. recently, some doubts about the momentum of the iphone 5, with deutsche bank coming out with a note earlier this week, questioning the momentum, month on month in terms of iphone 5 sales. what are you seeing on the front lines at at&t? >> well, i don't want to specifically comment about month to month. but the iphone is a big seller for us, as are many of the android devices. samsung galaxy s-3, the samsung

note. and melissa, the windows phones, which are new for us, as well, the nokia lumia is doing well. apple, android and now windows 8, which is a fantastic lineup for our customers. >> in terms of the momentum since the launch date of the iphone 5, ralph, is it at the same levelle of demand as it was when it first hit the market? >> well, what happened with the iphone 5 is, there was so much demand, there was limited supply when it first came out. right after black friday, we finally got enough inventory and so, i think it's selling very well. just like we expected it to. >> i want to ask you about this very low end phone that you've introduced, the discover smartphone. a lot of the features that a lot of the high priced smartphones have, runs android 4.0, an nfc radio, it's got a rear camera, runs an lte. $49. with a contract. how does that kind of phone compete and from your

profitability standpoint, aren't you better off receiving more phones like that than even an iphone 5? >> that's the, first of all, i'm glad you picked it up. it's a terrific device. very low cost but incredible features. it has 13 megapixel camera, which is unbelievable. what we're trying to do is give products that customers want and want to pay for. and so, the key for us is not to steer them to any particular device but to make sure the device we give the customer meets their needs, whether it be apple, microsoft, android or any device. this particular one, for people that are budget conscious and want a really great device at a low price, this is it. in addition to the features that you mentioned, i also wanted to make a little plug for a great feature that's built in called drive mode. and melissa, this is an application that actually keeps kids from getting texts to come in while they're driving. and actually for anybody. so, when the car starts running at 25 miles per hour or more, it shuts off texting and sends a

message that is customized by the customer and sent to the people that are sending them the message to let them know that they'll respond at an appropriate time. >> i hope a lot of parents are tuned into that. but ralph, i want to get back -- >> first phone that has that preinstalled. >> i want to get back to profits. walk us through when we are trying to understand at&t mobility's profitability on the various phones, i would imagine that a samsung might be more profitable for you than an iphone 5 or the low end phones. can you walk us through so we can understand this? >> well, yeah, the profitability of the phone is tied up in the subsidy of the phone, but the average revenue per unit, per customer, that is brought in on that phone and also very importantly, the churn, the lifetime value of the customer is what we focus on. and so, you can only just take into account the subsidy and the revenue that the phone brings in and the churn, the longevity of

the phone and i think those three factors that we take into account and when we do, our smartphones are very profitable and much more profitable than feature phones. >> i have to ask you about digital life. a new initiative where you can essentially control your life outside of your home. >> this is a wonderful product that we announced today, melissa, that it's going to be available in march in eight markets. it's an all ip, all digital home automation and security system. and what is different about this is that most of today's security system are analog and they are wired, they are wired from the panel in your wall to your windows or your doors. our service is all wireless. so, the panel is wireless and it has wire lessenors to your doors and your windows and you use your smartphone or tablet. it's a great innovation in the industry. we unveiled the fact that we're launching it in eight markets today. i think it's going to be a fantastic service for our

customers. >> ralph, thank you for your time. >> thank you. >> in terms of the wireless trends, do you go at&t or verizon or maybe just a samsung? >> well, samsung, you know, probably was expected by me, but if you look at what's going on in the smartphone space, the low end, where samsung can't compete, they're there, but at the high end, above 400, it's apple and samsung taking the cake here. samsung can compete in the bottom and i think people are understand estimating -- >> the new google phone? anything to say on that? >> i think it's in pretty good shape but there's a lot of competition at the bottom end here. >> at&t is the buy here. u-verse, you didn't mention that, but digital life and u-verse, two big things. another headline coming out, $5 streaming. >> only 1,500 titles -- >> bundled services. netflix, you only get one thing. if you are going to use the

other services, you might as well have that perk for 5 bucks a month instead of 8 bucks a month. verizon is doing it, at&t. only if you need the services. coming up next, a special read on the state of the american consumer. the boss of ddr has his finger on the pulse of some of the country's biggest retailers. and later on, not all hedge funds were losers in 2012. take a deeper dive to figure out who bucked the trend last year and see if they can keep the momentum going in 2013. stay tuned.

i need you. i feel so alone. but you're not alone. i knew you'd come. like i could stay away. you know i can't do this without you. you'll never have to. you're always there for me. shh! i'll get you a rental car. i could also use an umbrella. fall in love with progressive's claims service.

at a dry cleaner, we replaced people with a machine. what? customers didn't like it. so why do banks do it? hello? hello?! if your bank doesn't let you talk to a real person 24/7, you need an ally. hello? ally bank. your money needs an ally. olaf gets great rewards for his small business! pizza! [ garth ] olaf's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! helium delivery. put it on my spark card! [ pop! ] [ garth ] why settle for less? great businesses deserve great rewards! awesome!!! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase, every day!

what's in your wallet? welcome back to "fast money." we are live in times square. feeling a little sicker than usual this year, you're not alone. the cdc says this is the most aggressive early flu season in eight years and higher than expected flu prescriptions was one of the reasons jeffries upgraded walgreens today. what under the weather trades could lead to some healthy profits? and karen, you've been in cvs for a long time. people go in for flu shots and buy other things. aspirin or what not. >> and cvs and walgreens need that traffic.

walgreens really needs it. i've been a fan of cvs for a long time. i think their management is far superior. however, at this valuation differential, i think it's okay to own walgreens here. it's just too cheap. i think the damage from their express scripts dispute, i mean, it was ridiculous. they did such a poor job, but it's over. >> it's over. so, have you made that switch? >> i haven't made the switch yet but just looking at it right now -- >> how different is that valuation, though? aren't they both around 16 times? >> no, walgreens is much cheaper. they lost a huge swath of customers that, half of which they may never get back, which is -- that's why it was so stupid to have that fight with express scripts, but no, it's 12 times. >> got it. >> it's cheap. >> and cvs is 15 or so. scott nations, what do you see in terms of the action for any of these drugstore sort of plays? >> interesting in cvs today, we saw five calls trade for every couple of puts. both of these names are right at their 52-week high so, you might

expect a little bit more put buying as protection. but i think both of these do really well if the economy is okay to bad. if the economy is really good, i'm not certain i'd want to be in either one of them. but karen made a great point about walgreens ability to keep or bring back some customers, because one of the things that you see both of these names doing is, they're building stores near each other. if they lose a customer, then it's lost for awhile. >> let's move on here. may be premature to call for the death of the mall. ddr owns and manages more than 450 retail properties including watt mart, target and best buy. the company just raised its forecast, so, is the consumer actually healthier than we thought? let's bring the ceo in to find out. dan joins us. a frequent guest on the show. good to see you. >> happy new year. >> to you, too. we've been getting retail sales, we got some last week and they were largely lackluster, i would say. is that what you saw in the malls and does it really matter

at the end of the day, because some people just have that retail space for online returns and just other reasons? >> well, we have to be very careful on how we look at actual retail sales. sales are easy to manipulate. if you want to increase your sales, all you have to do is lower your price. we look at margins, where tenants come in. and most of the winners this year were the winners that have been thele toings that have been winning throughout the entire year and some of the people that lost this year are those who have been struggling. no huge surprise in the retail environment this year and we think sales overall were pretty good and margins and profits are going to be very positively reported in january. >> so, be specific. i know you have tons of different retail players in your spaces, but who really got it and who didn't? >> well, the folks this were really creaming it this year were tjmaxx and ross stores,

marshalls, home goods, all the tj divisions, nordstrom rack, old navy had a terrific holiday season. target was a little off on their sales but they're very, very strong on their margins, so, what they didn't do was take the big markdowns and give away the merchandise. and that's very important to us as a landlord, because tenants pay their rent with margin, not necessarily with comp store sales. probably the biggest disappointment was colekohl's. while they did have positive comp store sales, they did have to highly promote their merchandise in order to get the sale sales. >> are you concerned at least in the short-term about the 2% increase in payroll taxes that are -- it's going to be felt by all americans? >> it is, and it's never good when the consumer has less money in his or her pocket. but if you look at the 2% issue versus, say, 50 cents a gallon less in gasoline and some of the other issues and the average wage is going to go up 3% in the

u.s., you really have a situation where you have to look at the macro environment. not any one situation is going to have a huge impact on the consumer, really with the exception of jobs. jobs is what has the biggest impact on the consumer and will ultimately determine the healthle of the consumer. >> so, for a few years we've seen the dollar stores just killing it and then a lot of that was at walmart's expense. are you starting to see that dynamic change as some of the momentum comes out of the dollar stores? >> we're seeing some of the momentum come out of the dollars stores because the other retailers are being smart about allowing them to be a permitted lease. walmart, which may have ignored dollar stores in the past or grocers, ignowho ignores dollar stores in the past, saying, we don't want them in our shopping center, they are creating a negative advantage.

for people like us, that does create a dilemma and does make it difficult to offer prime real estate to dollar stores. it's going to have an impact on their ability to find the locations they're looking for. >> and just quickly, dan, because we did tease the segment as the death of the mall. green streets, as you know, predicted a 10% failure rate of the largest 1,000 malls in this country over the next ten years. you have said in the past, i believe, that there's underdemolishment, older malls just need to be gotten rid of at this point. >> yeah, i do think -- there's been talk about whether we are overstored in this country and i said, we're not overstored, we're underdemolished. we have a significant amount of real estate we are calling retail, there really isn't retail real estate today and isn't going to be tomorrow. so, i do think that we are going to have fewer shopping centers, both open air and malls in the future, because once again, if

you look at what's happening in the united states, very few are being built and many have to go away. >> and my quick followup is, are some of the failing anchor essential nants going to precipitate the closure or what is that trigger? is it going to be the demise of some chain out there or rationalization of stores? >> i think it's going to be rationalization of stores by a number of chains. >> such as? >> i think those in mrr that are losing market share at historic levels are going to continue to put pressure on the properties -- >> such as? jcpenney, best buy? >> sears, jcpenney. >> love that place. >> all right. dan, great to see you. >> thank you very much. >> all right, let's trade this. you are short chess king. >> i'd be long as long as steve is in the neighborhood. >> as long as steve is alive, you have to get long that thing. >> i think it's an interesting space. these guys have done a phenomenal job. they gave some guidance today, which was a little lower than

street expected. and some of that may be as a result of lower than expected acquisitions. that's something that people want to see more of in this environment. but it's an issue of time. >> sears contracting? >> it's interesting and they're going to have to figure out what to do and how to rationalize. this is a company that's done a great job. the management team understands the market. they figured out a way to raise their dividend and they figured out a way to redesign themselves. applaud you guys for that. >> got to take a break here. the things that are sure to surprise you in 2013. coming up next, talk to doug kass on his biggest miss of 2012 and get his bold calls for the new year. stay tuned. ♪ [ male announcer ] how do you turn an entrepreneur's dream... ♪ into a scooter that talks to the cloud? ♪ or turn 30-million artifacts...

♪ into a high-tech masterpiece? ♪ whatever your business challenge, dell has the technology and services to help you solve it. i am probably going to the gas station about once a month. last time i was at a gas station was about...i would say... two months ago. i very rarely put gas in my chevy volt. i go to the gas station such a small amount

that i forget how to put gas in my car. [ male announcer ] and it's not just these owners giving the volt high praise. volt received the j.d. power and associates appeal award two years in a row. ♪ [

they're supposed to be some of the smartest money on the street but hedge fund managers had it tough last year. 88% of funds trailed the market. overall hedge funds were just up 8% while the s&p 500 returned 13%. some of the notable losers were john paulson and david einhorn.

down 24% at the end of november. very average year for david, whose greenlight capital was right there with the bunch, returning 8%. paulson and einhorn were hurt by big positions in gold. dan loeb saw his flag ship up 21%. and leon cooperman saw net returns of 26% with picks like aig and sprint. let's take a deeper dive into what hedge funds did right and wrong in 2012 with our expert, anthony. his company had a very good year, sky bridge capital up 21%. congratulations. >> thank you. >> navigating the fund through tumultuous times last year. >> i have to tip my cap to our team, ray nolte and ray and their team on the research side that helps to do this stuff. if you were watching the show, you would know the most of the hedge funds were not going to do

well, because 55% of the indexes have been long short. at sky bridge, with 55% of the index weighed there, we have a 0.6% waeighting in long short. there's a lack of price discovery in tshhe markets. and there's a lot of correlations matching each other to one and these guys were overhedged and underperforming particularly in an up market. but let's talk about the future for one second. there will be money made in mortgage-backed securities. money made in distressed and callal is now moving to europe to take advantage of what will be distressed asset sales from banks in europe. so, this year will be another good year for the non-long short money manager. >> i have to defend david. 8% is a down year? that's hardly a loser. i think he's compounded, i think north of 20, i'm not certain, but you know, 8% in a year when he was hedge, that hardly, hardly makes him a loser.

>> that's fair. >> i just want -- none of my comments are an attack of david. >> no, you didn't attack. >> i think -- >> we did. we had a graphic that attacked him and i want to say -- >> but an attack on john paulson may be a little bit more warranted. it seemed like paulson -- >> you don't think so? >> i actually don't think so. >> why? >> i think there are aspects of john's firm that are going to do quite well next year. >> what happens, though, at a firm like that when they are so under water that mathematically, to get back to flat, to get to new high ground for so much of the new money that came in, what -- >> listen, we've done a lot of research on that firm. i think he has a very competent staff that are loyal to him. he's a disciplined and patient guy. he's made enough money where he can subsidize that run back to the top. and this is not a guy that i would be betting against and john will be in a one-on-one interview with me at salt in las vegas -- >> opposite positions at a time he took the positions, you'd do much better. he exited a lot of his financial

positions and then he bet against european debt at a time when it was time to be in european debt. >> that does happen in the markets. we can stand on the sidelines and be the john madden and circle where the winners are and the losers are. this guy's had a great run over a very long period of time and i wouldn't wry the guy off yet. >> he lost more money when he was at his largest. and so, in terms of absolute capital destruction, i mean, that's a problem. and this is an issue i think you guys probably look at all the time. coming up, is the rally of netflix picking up momentum? our traders take their positions on this comeback story. stick around. she keeps you guessing.

it's part of what you love about her. but your erectile dysfunction - you know, that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently.

tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. i've always had to keep my eye on her... but, i didn't always watch out for myself. with so much noise about health care... i tuned it all out. with unitedhealthcare, i get information that matters... my individual health profile. not random statistics. they even reward me for addressing my health risks. so i'm doing fine...

but she's still going to give me a heart attack. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. i'm wrong below 84 and i understand that's a ways away from here but i think think stock could trade up to 10 a $5, 110. in the short-term, i think this thing has some giddy up to it. >> that was a good call by guy a couple of weeks back. the stock's traded above 100 bucks a share today for the first time in eight months after announcing a licensing agreement with time warner. scott nation, you saw some unusual options activity today? what was it? >> that's right. quite a bit of option activity

in netflix today on the call side and on the puts side. interesting, though, that there's big buyer, the january 100 calls, paid $3.05. that makes the break even math pretty easy. $103.05. but i think that given that option s got much more expensiv today, somebody was reaching to buy these calls and think it's headed back to the 52-week high. >> let me just clear up. warner brothers, not time warner, have a deal. let's get to the biggest surprises of 2013. this is the moment you've been waiting for, because we've got doug kass' top three. doug kass has 15, actually, but joins us on the "fast line" with the top three we thought here at "fast money" were the most interesting. so, doug, let's go straight to them because we don't have a lot of time. procter & gamble and avon. what happens to them? >> procter & gamble, another activist hedge fund manager will join and acquire sizable

position in the company. and under the pressure of, in large group, force procter & gamble to split into two, three separate entities and the share price increases by $7 to $10 a share on that announcement. >> wow. that's a big move. in terms of the big winners of the year, you are predicting an automaker. which one? >> i like ford. i think this year's large cap bank of america, which was a real surprise, because, remember, it was down 50% in 2011, before it doubled in 2012, will be ford. and i think it will benefit from a combination of surprisingly strong domestic sales. conne and i think it will be closer to 17 million, result in a valuation upwards in the cheap, i think trade close to 20. >> and you got some bad news by way of predictions, when it comes to apple. >> you know, sorry to say -- one of my predictions last year, one

of my good predictions was that apple would be a superior -- would be a superior share price and fall down dramatically in september and i got that right. you see continuation of weakness of the last three months and that apple's earnings will be persistently reduced in the first half of 2013. under the weight of the competitive pressure of microsoft surface, which obviously started out poorly but will gain traction in the middle of the year. google's nexus, amazon's kindle. and i think apple's earnings will come in at less than $40 a share. i think under pressure for apple will be senator levin has a subcommittee investigation on offshore tax havens, the results will be released in the next month or two, and this will underscore the fact that apple and many tech companies have tax

avoidance strategies which are hurting the budget deficit. >> doug, i want to up the ante. you going to test the low s on apple? >> i think the stock will spend most of the first six months under $550 a share. >> under $550. >> $450 is a reach. >> one of your biggest hits was rightly predicting the fed would tire monetary policy to the labor market, that was a great call. in terms of the biggest miss, though, it was quite a big one, because then baing of america, i mean, obviously the move was tremendous last year. more than a double and you had predicted that it would be forced to raise additional $25 billion and that moynihan would resign, which is -- >> yeah, that was a big miss. we recognize, karen and i discussed this all last year, you know, these large banks, these large money center banks like bank of america in particular are quite opaque in terms of their balance sheets. so, it was my surprise, was that the reps and warranties would be

much more substantive problem to the company than proved to be correct. >> okay. and at this point, doug, would you buy bank of america or no? >> i wouldn't touch the stock here. >> doug, great to speak with you. >> thank you. >> again, doug has 15 predictions, you can catch it on cnbc.com for the full list. in terms of the trades here, which ones do you find the most come pechling? >> he did say facebook would underwhelm. >> that was the shocking one. >> it was. and it was a very good call. >> i do like his ford call but as i said before, ford appears to be overbought. i'd wait. year end, the stock can trade up to $16, $17, maybe higher. but it's still a little bit extended. you want to wait for lower prices. >> i like the avon call. i got long a couple weeks ago. on a risk-reward basis, this is the ultimate emerging markets retail story. >> procter & gamble. i like that one. >> let's go to brian shactman with what's coming up. >> i don't know. maybe the most wagered-upon, most watched college football game in the history of mankind!

maybe a little hyperbolic. but listen, big numbers to talk about when it comes to notre dame and alabama and i'll bring you a few of them coming up next. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. and sounds vying for your attention. so we invented a warning you can feel. introducing the all-new cadillac xts. available with a patented safety alert seat.

when there's danger you might not see, you're warned by a pulse in the seat. it's technology you won't find in a mercedes e-class. the all-new cadillac xts has arrived, and it's bringing the future forward. nothing. are you stealing our daughter's school supplies and taking them to work? no, i was just looking for my stapler and my... this thing. i save money by using fedex ground and buy my own supplies. that's a great idea. i'm going to go... we got clients in today. [ male announcer ] save on ground shipping at fedex office.

we are less than three hours from kickoff. alabama and notre dame going at it for the bcs national championship and brian shactman is here now with the megamoney behind this game. brian? >> you know, melissa, it is always interesting to see what vegas is doing. they are usually more right than wrong, i don't know if that's like the bond market or the option market. but anyway, the spread moved to ten points earlier in the afternoon, making alabama an even bigger favorite. the las vegas hilton told me is taking alabama in the points, but more bets, smaller ones, are on notre dame. they can't yet say if it will be the most weigh agered game in ce football history, but some pro nexts have $2 billion being put to work in this game. since we are getting closer to earnings season, how about the pnl for these programs? the irish, $69 million in football-related revenue. 62% profit margin.

they net about 43 million bucks. at alabama, the numbers are higher. $82 million, but they spend a little bit more, so, despite $13 million more in revenue, alabama profit is $45 million, just $2 million more than notre dame. both profit numbers are better than most nba and nhl teams. notre dame's numbers are sure to go up, especially in 2015 when their tv deal is up with nbc. it's $15 million now. we'll see what happens in 2015, some say it could double, not so sure about that. >> wow, wow. brian, stick with us. we want to bring in our own "fast money" football expert, that would be pete thnajarian. pete, we are relying on you much more than vegas wagers, so, what do you say? >> you are talking about almost exactly identical teams on almost every position across the football. the one area where i think there's a huge discrepancy is the quarterback. when you look at a.j. mccarron for alabama. this guy actually was one of those that was towards that

area, talking about the heisman trophy until they lost to texas a&m. so, he's an outstanding quarterback. extremely accurate. he does not throw interceptions. only three the entire year. you have to give the tip there to alabama. and because of that, i think alabama runs away with it in 2 fourth quarter. >> alabama, brian. >> listen. i would take notre dame because the points -- i drool over points. so, i would take notre dame because the points look good. but what i would say is, if -- i take a little different approach than pete. i would say if notre dame could keep it close early, i think they actually have a fighting chance in the second half and manti te'o, he's going to have to do something special. a pickoff, a fumble return, something special to turn the tide. flt you will. >> oh! all right, guys. we're going to leave it at that. pete, always good to speak with you. >> great to be with you. >> our thanks to brian, as well. anybody watching the game tonight? >> ah, yeah, yeah. and as much as people love to hate the s.e.c., s.e.c. wins again. best conference in the nation.

>> none of us on this desk hate the s.e.c. just for the record. >> especially anthony. >> go gators. coming up next hour on "mad money," cramer is looking at the bank of america and home depot. but which one will score you profits in 2013? plus, jim scott, the ceo of nps from the floor of the jpmorgan health care conference, all coming up at the top of the hour. first move tomorrow when we come back. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] don't just reject convention.

drown it out. introducing the all-new 2013 lexus ls f sport. an entirely new pursuit. we don't let frequent heartburn come between us and what we love. so if you're one of them people who gets heartburn and then treats day after day... block the acid with prilosec otc and don't get heartburn in the first place! [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. office superstore ink retailer in america. now get $6 back in staples rewards for every ink cartridge you recycle when you spend $50 on hp ink. staples. that was easy. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with the new global account from schwab, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i hunt down opportunities around the world tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 as if i'm right there.

tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i'm in total control because i can trade tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 directly online in 12 markets in their local currencies. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i use their global research to get an edge. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 their equity ratings show me how schwab tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 rates specific foreign stocks tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 based on things like fundamentals, momentum and risk. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i also have access to independent tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 firms like ned davis research tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and economist intelligence unit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 plus, i can talk to their global specialists 24/7. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and trade in my global account commission-free tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 through march 2013. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 best part... no jet lag. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-877-561-5445 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and a global specialist tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 will help you get started today. [ male announcer ] how do you make 70,000 trades a second... ♪ reach one customer at a time? ♪ or help doctors turn billions of bytes of shared information... ♪